Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2025?

Started Nov 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNN, Naval News, Foreign Policy Research Institute). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones will count, but balloons will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 45.68% -1.14% -3.13%
No 54.32% +1.14% +3.13%

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