At close of business on 19 March 2025, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 January 2025?

Started Nov 8, 2024 06:00PM
Closed Mar 19, 2025 07:01AM (17 days ago)

The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 18-19 March 2025.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 19 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 2%
Same 98%
Higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 236
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 409
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.224374
2.
-0.214011
3.
-0.204431
4.
-0.190363
5.
-0.128107

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Nov 12, 2024 2:08AM PST (127 days before close, question was 3% complete)
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username