What will be the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) most recently announced "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" as of 19 December 2024?
Closed Dec 19, 2024 08:01AM UTC
In March 2024, the BOJ ended its 17-year policy of negative interest rates (CNN, World Economic Forum, US News & World Report). As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 18-19 December 2024, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.25 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy October 2024, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the upper limit of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.1%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in most 2024 statements, the BOJ has explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "0.25%" with a closing date of 19 December 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 0.25% | 14% | |
0.25% | 65% | |
More than 0.25%, but less than 0.50% | 14% | |
0.50% or more | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 16 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133 | |
Number of Forecasts | 83 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |