What will be the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) most recently announced "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" as of 19 December 2024?

Started Nov 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In March 2024, the BOJ ended its 17-year policy of negative interest rates (CNN, World Economic Forum, US News & World Report). As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 18-19 December 2024, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.25 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy October 2024, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the upper limit of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.1%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in most 2024 statements, the BOJ has explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "0.25%" with a closing date of 19 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.25% 14%
0.25% 65%
More than 0.25%, but less than 0.50% 14%
0.50% or more 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085131
2.
-0.075151
3.
-0.034322
4.
-0.032773
5.
-0.019139

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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