Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?

Started Jan 10, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 15, 2017 05:00PM UTC

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 15 March 2017 and Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party (PVV), has been ahead in the polls (Express UK). If no government is formed after the March elections and subsequent elections are scheduled, the question will resolve as "no." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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As of 3 October, the Dutch government is still being formed, and a prime minister has not yet been decided. This question will be scored when a prime minister is announced.
Geert Wilders did not become prime minister. (Politico) This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 15 March 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 339
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 680
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.018545
2.
-0.018377
3.
-0.018036
4.
-0.017939
5.
-0.01792

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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