What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, for 28 and 29 November 2024?

Started Nov 13, 2024 09:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 28, 2024 08:01AM UTC

A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 27 November 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for 28-29 November 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 MTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with an "11" under "Month" and either "28" or "29" under "Day, and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. As of the launch of this question, the average AQI value for New Delhi was 214.292 on 28 and 29 November 2023 (see "2023 PM2.5" linked under the "Historical" tab).

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The question closed "At least 260.00, but less than 280.00" with a closing date of 30 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 160.00 1%
At least 160.00, but less than 180.00 2%
At least 180.00, but less than 200.00 3%
At least 200.00, but less than 220.00 5%
At least 220.00, but less than 240.00 10%
At least 240.00, but less than 260.00 9%
At least 260.00, but less than 280.00 8%
At least 280.00, but less than 300.00 12%
At least 300.00, but less than 320.00 12%
At least 320.00, but less than 340.00 9%
At least 340.00, but less than 360.00 6%
At least 360.00, but less than 380.00 6%
At least 380.00, but less than 400.00 6%
400.00 or more 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 323
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.246926
2.
-0.200192
4.
-0.192472
5.
-0.182962

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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