President-elect Donald Trump surprised many in Washington by naming Representative Matt Gaetz as his pick for Attorney General (BBC, The Hill). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Newsweek, Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Gaetz's appointment as Attorney General or Gaetz publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.