Who will win the next special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District?
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida resigned from the House of Representatives despite having just won reelection, as Gaetz is President-elect Trump's choice to become Attorney General (Politico, North Escambia). The vacancy will be filled by a special election (Tallahassee Democrat). The House Ethics Committee had been prepared to vote on releasing a report on an investigation of Gaetz, but Gaetz's resignation stripped the committee of jurisdiction (CNN). Don Gaetz is Matt Gaetz's father and a veteran of Florida politics (WTSP).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -22.60% |
| Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 3.70% | 0% | 0% | -11.70% |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 3.90% | 0% | -2.50% | -10.50% |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 82.70% | +0.70% | +3.70% | +54.40% |
| Someone else, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | -0.70% | -1.00% | -4.80% |
| Someone else, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 9.70% | 0% | -0.20% | -4.80% |