Who will win the next special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District?
Closing Mar 05, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida resigned from the House of Representatives despite having just won reelection, as Gaetz is President-elect Trump's choice to become Attorney General (Politico, North Escambia). The vacancy will be filled by a special election (Tallahassee Democrat). The House Ethics Committee had been prepared to vote on releasing a report on an investigation of Gaetz, but Gaetz's resignation stripped the committee of jurisdiction (CNN). Don Gaetz is Matt Gaetz's father and a veteran of Florida politics (WTSP).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 31.40% | -9.60% |
| Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 12.90% | +6.90% |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 13.00% | -2.00% |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 25.80% | +4.80% |
| Someone else, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 3.40% | -3.60% |
| Someone else, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 13.50% | +3.50% |