Who will win the next special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District?
Closed Apr 1, 2025 07:01AM (4 days ago)
Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida resigned from the House of Representatives despite having just won reelection, as Gaetz is President-elect Trump's choice to become Attorney General (Politico, North Escambia). The vacancy will be filled by a special election (Tallahassee Democrat). The House Ethics Committee had been prepared to vote on releasing a report on an investigation of Gaetz, but Gaetz's resignation stripped the committee of jurisdiction (CNN). Don Gaetz is Matt Gaetz's father and a veteran of Florida politics (WTSP).
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The question closed "A Republican other than Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | |
| Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | |
| A Republican other than Don Gaetz, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 95% | |
| Someone else, and the election will be held before 3 January 2025 | 0% | |
| Someone else, but the election will not be held before 3 January 2025 | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 106 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 409 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
