Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will South Korea publicly announce that it has or will provide lethal weapons and/or ammunition to Ukraine before 1 April 2025?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

As North Koreans troops join Russia's fight against Ukraine, South Korea is reportedly considering sending weapons to Ukraine (France 24, Korea Pro, Newsweek). South Korea has a policy of not supplying weapons to countries that are actively engaged in fighting (AP). For the purposes of this question, "lethal weapons and ammunition" mean instruments designed to be used in a way that is likely to cause death, and lethal weapons characterized as defensive in nature will count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 43.44% +2.56% +13.59%
No 56.56% -2.56% -13.59%

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