Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?
Closing Jul 20, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The change in US administrations has renewed focus on potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (BBC, Politico, Caspian News). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
---|---|---|---|
Before 20 January 2025 | 1.00% | 0% | -1.00% |
Between 20 January 2025 and 19 April 2025 | 11.00% | 0% | -6.00% |
Between 20 April 2025 and 19 July 2025 | 28.00% | 0% | +1.00% |
Not before 20 July 2025 | 60.00% | 0% | +6.00% |