Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Reports of sabotage operations in Europe by Russia have further inflamed tensions on the continent (NBC News, Yahoo [DPA International], US News & World Report). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (The Conversation).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 24.30% 0% +2.40% +3.01%
No 75.70% 0% -2.40% -3.01%

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