Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 25 February 2026, will the US accuse Russia of having engaged a US-registered commercial satellite orbiting Earth with a Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite (DA-ASAT) missile?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 25, 2026 08:01AM UTC

In 2021, Russia conducted a DA-ASAT missile test that destroyed one of its own satellites, and Russia has reportedly threatened US and allied satellites (Arms Control Association, Forbes, Air & Space Forces Magazine). The engagement and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count. A "DA-ASAT" is "a medium- or long-range missile launching from the Earth to damage or destroy a satellite in orbit" (Center for Strategic & International Studies). All US satellites must be registered (UN Office of Outer Space Affairs, Cornell - 14 CFR § 450.217). Damaged caused by debris from a Russian DA-ASAT missile striking another orbiting object will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 19.92% +0.84% +18.50%
No 80.08% -0.84% -18.50%

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