Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
Various political and economic factors have observers speculating over the future of US dollar dominance in global finance (IMF, US News & World Report, Council on Foreign Relations). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using "World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves" data for the fourth quarter of 2026 as reported by the IMF when data for the fourth quarter of 2026 are first released, expected in early 2027 (IMF). As of the launch of this question, the IMF reported that 58.42% of allocated reserve were in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 50.00% | 2.00% | +0.50% | +0.50% | 0% |
| At least 50.00%, but less than 52.50% | 7.10% | -0.70% | -0.60% | +1.10% |
| At least 52.50%, but less than 55.00% | 14.60% | +0.10% | 0% | -1.40% |
| At least 55.00%, but less than 57.50% | 37.40% | +1.30% | +1.10% | +2.40% |
| At least 57.50%, but less than 60.00% | 36.70% | -1.20% | -1.00% | -0.30% |
| At least 60.00%, but less than 62.50% | 2.20% | 0% | 0% | -0.80% |
| 62.5% or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |