Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 15 November 2024 and 28 February 2025, what will be the lowest closing price of soybeans?
Closed Feb 28, 2025 08:01AM (a month ago)
Soybean prices have fallen considerably in 2024 (MarketWatch, Agriculture.com). The question will be suspended on 27 February 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US (your location in the world may impact how the site dates prices) by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and note that soybeans are priced in US cents per bushel). The closing price of soybeans on 8 November 2024 was 1016.8 cents, or $10.168.
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The question closed "$9.50/bushel or more" with a closing date of 28 February 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $9.00/bushel | 1% | |
| At least $9.00/bushel, but less than $9.50/bushel | 3% | |
| $9.50/bushel or more | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 68 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 153 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 296 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 408 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
