The Economist asks:

How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2025?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 02, 2025 07:01AM UTC

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (Economist, US News & World Report, NATO). The outcome will be determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2025 released in 2025, including estimates, expected no later than mid-2025 (NATO, scroll to the bottom for reports by year, select the appropriate year, see download options at the bottom of the page and reference Table 3). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per "Download the tables in Excel format" will be used. According to the June 2024 report, which included estimates for 2024 spending, 23 countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense, up from 10 in 2023 (NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024), see Download options at bottom of page and reference Table 3). Please note that Iceland, while a member of NATO, has no armed forces and therefore no defense expenditures.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
19 or fewer 6.77% -0.23% +0.77% -1.16%
20 or 21 8.85% -0.15% -1.15% +1.27%
22 or 23 32.51% -0.49% +0.51% +1.42%
24 or 25 34.87% +0.87% +0.87% -3.11%
26 or more 17.00% 0% -1.00% +1.58%

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