The Economist asks:
How many Bundestag seats will the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) win in the 2025 German federal election?
Started
Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closing Sep 28, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Closing Sep 28, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After the governing coalition led by the Social Democrats (SPD) collapsed, German leaders have tentatively agreed to seek a new election date in February 2025 after a planned vote of confidence in December 2024, which moves it up from the 28 September 2025 date previously announced (Economist, Politico, Deutsche Welle, Deutschland.de). In a change, there will be 630 seats up for the next Bundestag (Politico). If the election date is changed, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 166 | 3.89% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -3.11% |
| Between 166 and 215 | 23.41% | -0.59% | -1.59% | +2.41% |
| Between 216 and 265 | 51.75% | +1.75% | +5.75% | +0.75% |
| Between 266 and 315 | 18.09% | -0.91% | -2.91% | +0.09% |
| More than 315 | 2.86% | -0.14% | -1.14% | -0.14% |