The Economist asks:

How many seats will the Liberal-National Coalition (the Coalition) win in the next Australian House of Representatives elections?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closing Sep 27, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While domestic issues were dominating Australian politics in October 2024, defense issues remain present (Economist, Ipsos - Issue Monitor October 2024). The next Australian House of Representatives is scheduled to take place no later than 27 September 2025, with Labor and the Coalition vying for control of a new government (Parliament of Australia, Sydney Morning Herald, The Conversation, RedBridge). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set. Any by-election results will be immaterial.

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NOTE 23 November 2024: A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party/electoral coalition, but less than a majority.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
A majority 24.96% -0.04% +0.98% -13.93%
A plurality 39.60% -0.40% -2.70% +7.44%
Neither a majority nor a plurality 35.44% +0.44% +1.72% +6.49%

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