The Economist asks:

What will be China's estimated annual inflation rate for 2025, according to the IMF?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM
Closed Apr 1, 2025 07:01AM (21 days ago)

Amid ongoing trouble in China's real estate sector and related debt fears, inflation in the country remains low with fears of possible sustained deflation (Economist, US News & World Report, MSN [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual inflation rate data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2025, which is expected in April 2025. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlook Databases), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database," then click "By Countries." In the reporting tool page, 1) select "EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ASIA," 2) click the "CLEAR ALL" button, then "China," then click "CONTINUE," 3) select "Inflation, average consumer prices PERCENT CHANGE," then click "CONTINUE," 4) set the "Start Year" and "End Year" as you wish, then press the "PREPARE REPORT" button. China's annual inflation rate for 2025 was estimated to be 1.660% according to the October 2024 database (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2024).

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The question closed "Less than 0.00%" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.00% 2%
At least 0.00%, but less than 0.50% 11%
At least 0.50%, but less than 1.00% 29%
At least 1.00%, but less than 1.50% 27%
At least 1.50%, but less than 2.00% 22%
2.00% or higher 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 225
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 152
Number of Forecasts 554
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 405
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.846924
2.
-0.732842
3.
-0.728426
4.
-0.725223
5.
-0.655994

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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