President-elect Trump's plans for US tariff policy, particularly as it pertains to China, have raised concerns about impacts on international trade (Economist, Yahoo [Bloomberg], Newsweek). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade, free registration required). After logging in, click "Imports" next to "Harmonized System (HS) District-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select both "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" and "Calculated Duty ($US)." 2) Leave "Commodity" unrevised, as it defaults to "All Commodities." 3) Click "Country," then click the "+" next to "World Total," then find and select "China." 4) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After those entries, click "Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. To calculate the effective tariff rate for a month or months, divide the "Calculated Duty ($US)" value by the "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" value. In the July 2024, the effective tariff rate was 11.279%. Past annual and monthly import data may be viewed by downloading this xlsx file (Census Import Data (China) 2002-2024YTD 15 November 2024).

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