ALabinsky asks:
Who will Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) announce as its candidate for chancellor in the next German federal election?
Started
Nov 20, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
Challenges
After the collapse of Germany's "traffic light" coalition, new elections are expected in February 2025 (International Politics and Society Journal, Guardian, Deutsche Welle). The SPD is reportedly planning to decide the party's nominee for chancellor by the end of November 2025 (Euronews).
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The question closed "Olaf Scholz" with a closing date of 25 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Olaf Scholz | 88% | |
| Boris Pistorius | 2% | |
| Someone else | 7% | |
| No party candidate will be announced before 1 January 2025 | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 67 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
