ALabinsky asks:

Who will Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) announce as its candidate for chancellor in the next German federal election?

Started Nov 20, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

After the collapse of Germany's "traffic light" coalition, new elections are expected in February 2025 (International Politics and Society Journal, Guardian, Deutsche Welle). The SPD is reportedly planning to decide the party's nominee for chancellor by the end of November 2025 (Euronews).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Olaf Scholz 67.66% +24.66%
Boris Pistorius 19.66% -24.34%
Someone else 7.10% -1.90%
No party candidate will be announced before 1 January 2025 5.59% +1.59%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username