Zan-Ozimek asks:

Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon or other clemency before noon (Eastern time) on 20 January 2025?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 02, 2024 12:30AM UTC
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President Biden's son, Hunter, was convicted on gun charges and pled guilty to federal tax charges in 2024 (AP, Department of Justice). President Biden's term end at noon ET on 20 January 2025, and there is speculation that he may commute or pardon his son, though the White House has previously stated that no pardon is planned (CBS News, The Hill). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count.

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The question closed "Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions 24%
Yes, but some form of clemency less than a full pardon on all criminal convictions 18%
No 58%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 88
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-1.605922
3.
-1.344211
4.
-1.288522
5.
-1.130833

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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