Before 8 August 2025, will a United States Supreme Court Justice announce his or her retirement?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM
Closing Aug 8, 2025 07:01AM (in 4 months)

With Donald Trump's reelection, he may end up naming more than one new Supreme Court Justice in his second term (NBC News, CBS News, CNN). An announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor will count, irrespective of the date it is to take effect (e.g., Supreme Court - O'Connor Letter, Supreme Court - Breyer Letter). The death or removal of a Justice alone will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 20.04% -0.03% -3.77% -16.58%
No 79.96% +0.03% +3.77% +16.58%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username