What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 31 March 2025?
Started
Nov 29, 2024 06:00PM
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM (4 days ago)
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM (4 days ago)
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 22 November 2024, the yield was 4.41%.
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The question closed "At least 4.20%, but less than 4.50%" with a closing date of 31 March 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.40% | 1% | |
| At least 2.40%, but less than 2.70% | 1% | |
| At least 2.70%, but less than 3.00% | 1% | |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 3.30% | 0% | |
| At least 3.30%, but less than 3.60% | 0% | |
| At least 3.60%, but less than 3.90% | 1% | |
| At least 3.90%, but less than 4.20% | 15% | |
| At least 4.20%, but less than 4.50% | 77% | |
| At least 4.50%, but less than 4.80% | 4% | |
| At least 4.80%, but less than 5.10% | 0% | |
| 5.10% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 302 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 410 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 5, 2025 3:31PM PST (54 days before close, question was 56% complete)