What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 31 March 2025?
Started
Nov 29, 2024 06:00PM
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM (4 days ago)
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM (4 days ago)
The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 25 November 2024, the closing value was 5,987.37.
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The question closed "At least 5,500, but less than 5,750" with a closing date of 31 March 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5,000 | 0% | |
| At least 5,000, but less than 5,250 | 1% | |
| At least 5,250, but less than 5,500 | 14% | |
| At least 5,500, but less than 5,750 | 74% | |
| At least 5,750, but less than 6,000 | 9% | |
| At least 6,000, but less than 6,250 | 1% | |
| At least 6,250, but less than 6,500 | 1% | |
| At least 6,500, but less than 6,750 | 0% | |
| At least 6,750, but less than 7,000 | 0% | |
| 7,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 74 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 475 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 410 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Mar 28, 2025 6:59AM PDT (3 days before close, question was 98% complete)