rjfmgy asks:

When will Bashar Al-Assad flee Syria or cease to be its president?

Started Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 02, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Anti-government forces in Syria overran Assad regime forces in the city of Aleppo in late November 2024, representing the greatest challenge to Assad's rule in several years (USA Today, CBS News, BBC, Euronews). Whether or not Assad has fled Syria will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 2 April 2025 13.00% 0%
Between 2 April 2025 and 1 August 2025 9.00% +1.00%
Between 2 August 2025 and 1 December 2025 8.00% 0%
Not before 2 December 2025 70.00% -1.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username