rjfmgy asks:

When will Bashar Al-Assad flee Syria or cease to be its president?

Started Dec 2, 2024 04:00PM
Closed Dec 8, 2024 04:30AM (5 days ago)

Anti-government forces in Syria overran Assad regime forces in the city of Aleppo in late November 2024, representing the greatest challenge to Assad's rule in several years (USA Today, CBS News, BBC, Euronews). Whether or not Assad has fled Syria will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "Before 2 April 2025" with a closing date of 7 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 2 April 2025 80%
Between 2 April 2025 and 1 August 2025 5%
Between 2 August 2025 and 1 December 2025 3%
Not before 2 December 2025 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 94
Number of Forecasts 211
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 167
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.88698
3.
-0.78298
4.
-0.609313
5.
-0.468967

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 6, 2024 5:28PM PST (1 days before close, question was 80% complete)
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