rjfmgy asks:
When will Bashar Al-Assad flee Syria or cease to be its president?
Started
Dec 2, 2024 04:00PM
Closed Dec 8, 2024 04:30AM (5 days ago)
Closed Dec 8, 2024 04:30AM (5 days ago)
Challenges
Anti-government forces in Syria overran Assad regime forces in the city of Aleppo in late November 2024, representing the greatest challenge to Assad's rule in several years (USA Today, CBS News, BBC, Euronews). Whether or not Assad has fled Syria will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
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The question closed "Before 2 April 2025" with a closing date of 7 December 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 2 April 2025 | 80% | |
Between 2 April 2025 and 1 August 2025 | 5% | |
Between 2 August 2025 and 1 December 2025 | 3% | |
Not before 2 December 2025 | 12% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 64 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 94 | |
Number of Forecasts | 211 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 167 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 6, 2024 5:28PM PST (1 days before close, question was 80% complete)