Between 1 December 2024 and 28 February 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in Syria due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Mar 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Anti-government forces in Syria overran Assad regime forces in the city of Aleppo in late November 2024, representing the greatest challenge to Assad's rule in several years (USA Today, CBS News, BBC, Euronews). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select nothing, (5) select only "Syria," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,598 total fatalities in Syria between 1 December 2023 and 29 February 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 14 March 2025 unless ACLED reports fatalities in excess of 21,500 before 1 March 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1,000 | 2.75% | +1.75% |
| At least 1,000, but fewer than 2,000 | 7.44% | +1.44% |
| At least 2,000, but fewer than 3,000 | 18.25% | -4.75% |
| At least 3,000, but fewer than 4,500 | 21.75% | -1.25% |
| At least 4,500, but fewer than 6,500 | 17.06% | +6.06% |
| At least 6,500, but fewer than 8,000 | 10.88% | +1.88% |
| At least 8,000, but fewer than 11,000 | 11.06% | -2.94% |
| At least 11,000, but fewer than 15,500 | 6.44% | -1.56% |
| At least 15,500, but fewer than 21,500 | 2.56% | -0.44% |
| 21,500 or more | 1.81% | -0.19% |