Will Kash Patel be sworn in as the Director of the FBI before 31 May 2025?
Closed Feb 21, 2025 09:50PM (a month ago)
President-elect Donald Trump named Kash Patel, an attorney who worked in Trump's first administration, as his choice to lead the FBI amid some pushback (AP, BBC, CNN). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Yahoo [CBC], Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Patel's appointment as the Director of the FBI or Patel publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."
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The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 21 February 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate | 90% | |
| Yes, after a recess appointment by the president | 3% | |
| No | 7% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 44 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 193 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 409 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
