As President-elect Trump prepares to return to the White House, tariffs and trade have come to the fore (AP, BBC, Yahoo [Washington Post], USA Today). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade, free registration required). After logging in, click "Imports" next to "Harmonized System (HS) District-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select both "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" and "Calculated Duty ($US)." 2) Leave "Commodity" unrevised, as it defaults to "All Commodities." 3) Leave "Country" unrevised, as it defaults to "World Total." 4) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After those entries, click "Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. To calculate the effective tariff rate for the year, divide the total "Calculated Duty ($US)" value by the total "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" value. From April 2023 to March 2024, the effective tariff rate was 2.349%, down from 2.652% from April 2022 to March 2023. Past annual and monthly import data may be viewed by downloading this xlsx file (Download).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.