What percentage of US credit card balances will be in serious delinquency in the third quarter of 2025?
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Credit card debt reached a record $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, and while new delinquency rates have improved slightly, the percentage of that debt moving into "serious delinquency" (i.e., 90 or more days delinquent) continues to rise (New York Fed, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) in its Q3 2025 Household Debt and Credit Report, expected in November 2025 (New York Fed, click "DOWNLOADS" and select "DATA" to download the file). In its Q3 2024 report (see the "CC" column in the "Page 12 Data" sheet), the NY Fed reported the "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent" for credit cards at 11.132%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 9.500% | 5.30% | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| At least 9.500%, but less than 10.500% | 11.70% | +0.70% | +1.50% |
| At least 10.500%, but less than 11.500% | 30.70% | +5.50% | +5.30% |
| At least 11.500%, but less than 12.500% | 28.30% | -5.00% | -7.00% |
| At least 12.500%, but less than 13.500% | 18.80% | -0.90% | +0.10% |
| 13.500% or more | 5.20% | -0.20% | 0% |