Before 1 September 2025, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and continues to attack Russian territory, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, US News & World Report). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 4.05% -0.10% -0.10%
No 95.95% +0.10% +0.10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username