Before 1 September 2025, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started Dec 6, 2024 06:00PM
Closing Sep 1, 2025 07:01AM (in 6 months)

As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and continues to attack Russian territory, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, US News & World Report). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 4.95% -0.20% -0.28% +1.95%
No 95.05% +0.20% +0.28% -1.95%

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