Technology companies and organizations are racing to develop the best performing chatbots (Axios, The Verge). The question will be suspended on 13 November 2025 and the outcome determined using the ranks as reported by LMSYS Org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 November 2025 (Chatbot Arena, see "Rank* (UB)"). As of 5 December 2024, OpenAI was ranked first with its "ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-11-20)" model with an Arena Score of 1366. In the event of a tie for first place by LLMs of different organizations, the LLM with the higher Arena Score will be considered first, followed by the "Votes" total.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.