Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 May 2025, will the US give written notification that it is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement regarding climate change?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

During Donald Trump's first term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which President Biden reversed, and Trump has stated he will withdraw again during the 2024 US presidential campaign (Politico, US News & World Report, Department of State). Withdrawal procedures are govered by Article 28 of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC - Paris Agreement). Trump announced the US' withdrawal from the agreement in June 2017 (BBC).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 87.69% +0.31% -0.44%
No 12.31% -0.32% +0.44%

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