Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing value of the S&P 500 Index fall below 4,860.09 before 1 July 2025?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 5 December 2024, the closing value was 6,075.11, and 4,860.09 represents a 20% fall from the closing value on 5 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 13.06% -0.13% +3.56%
No 86.94% +0.13% -3.56%

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