Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?

Started Jan 24, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 14, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Angela Merkel, the current chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party, announced that she would seek re-election in 2017 (The Guardian, WSJ, CNBC). Gemany will hold federal elections in 2017, after which the new Bundestag will elect the chancellor (Bloomberg, Deutsche Welle). Clarification: This question will remain open until Germany's Bundestag elects the Chancellor or a new election is called. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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Angela Merkel was elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election (CNN). This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 14 March 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 12/04/17 03:46pm
(Posted 30 November 2017) This question will remain open until Germany's Bundestag elects the Chancellor or a new election is called.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 766
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 2783
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085879
2.
-0.085378
3.
-0.084937
4.
-0.084739
5.
-0.084442

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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