ALabinsky asks:

Will at least one candidate of Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW) party win a seat in the next Bundestag election?

Started Dec 13, 2024 06:00PM
Closed Feb 23, 2025 08:01AM (2 months ago)

After the governing coalition led by the Social Democrats (SPD) collapsed, German leaders have tentatively agreed to seek a new election date in February 2025 after a planned vote of confidence in December 2024, which moves it up from the 28 September 2025 date previously announced (Politico, Deutsche Welle, Deutscheland.de). Germany has a "two vote" system whereby voters vote for a candidate ("first vote") in a constituency as well as a political party ("second vote") (German Federal Ministry of the Interior). A party cannot win seats in an election by proportional allocation rules without receiving at least 5% of the vote, unless the party wins three constituent seats in the same election (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Reuters], Deutsche Welle, German Federal Constitutional Court). In a change, there will be 630 seats up for the next Bundestag (Politico). If the election date is changed, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 36%
No 64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 153
Number of Forecasts 217
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 407
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.437724
2.
-0.869796
3.
-0.755618
4.
-0.656651
5.
-0.650618

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 14, 2025 10:46AM PST (9 days before close, question was 88% complete)
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