The US closed its embassy in Damascus in February 2012 when violence erupted marking the beginning of the Syrian civil war, and the future of US relations with a new Syrian government remains up in the air as the US has reportedly taken steps to secure its embassy building there (Scripps News, US Embassy in Syria, Atlantic Council). The question will close upon the actual reopening of the embassy, not merely an announced plan for reopening. The reopening of the embassy need not be in the previous embassy building, but it must be located in Damascus or the Damascus Countryside Governorate to count. A reopening with limited services will count so long as US diplomatic personnel are present.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 16 December 2024: US diplomatic recognition of a Syrian government is immaterial to this question.

NOTE 17 December 2024: The exact identity of the entity that the US may recognize as the government of Syria in relation to that reopening is immaterial, and the opening of a facility for consular services that the US does not characterize as its embassy will not count.