Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will tanker ship daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz be below 15 for two consecutive days, according to the IMF?

Started Dec 13, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

As tensions between Iran and various actors remain high, there is fear that it could attempt to halt critical energy shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, Middle East Eye, Yahoo [Business Insider]). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options). As of the launch of this question, PortWatch reported the lowest number of tanker ship transit calls for a single day at 27 on 6 December 2019. Cargo ship transits are immaterial, and they may be excluded by clicking "Number of Cargo Ships" under the chart on the webpage. A static file with data for 1 January 2019 to 1 December 2024 may be downloaded here: xlsx Download.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 32.50% +3.50%
No 67.50% -3.50%

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