Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US publicly accuse China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces of engaging in combat operations in the Ukraine-Russia conflict before 1 April 2025?

Started Dec 13, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While China has not entered the fighting alongside its ally Russia in Ukraine, China has been accused of enabling Russia to continue its fighting (US News & World Report, France24, Council on Foreign Relations). The PLA is the unified military land, sea, and air forces of the People's Republic of China (Britannica - PLA). For the purposes of this question, "combat operations" means conducting offensive or defensive actions against the forces of Ukraine or any forces defending Ukraine by land, sea, or air. The public accusation and the engaging in combat operations must both occur during the question's open period to count. The mere provisioning of weapons and ammunition alone will not count. An accusation that Chinese troops are serving under Russian command will count (e.g., MSN [Reuters]), but the mere accusation that Chinese nationals or members of the PLA are fighting without command authorization will not count. The location of the combat operations is immaterial so long as they are against the forces of Ukraine or any forces defending Ukraine by land, sea, or air. An accusation of a cyberattack alone will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 23.50% -2.97% +18.00%
No 76.50% +2.97% -18.00%

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