Will the President of the United States issue a pardon to Liz Cheney before noon (Eastern time) on 20 January 2025?
Closed Jan 20, 2025 08:01AM UTC
After President Biden pardoned his son Hunter for gun and tax convictions, speculation has arisen that he may also "preemptively" pardon others deemed potential targets of President-elect Trump (Politico, ABC News). President Biden's term ends at noon ET on 20 January 2025 (US Constitution - Twentieth Amendment). Whether Cheney refuses to accept the pardon is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 January 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | |
| No | 78% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 56 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 130 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 139 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 299 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
