Between 18 December 2024 and 20 June 2025, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu"), according to the USDA?
Closing Jun 21, 2025 07:01AM UTC
HPAI continues to circulate in the US, which has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds across the country since 2022 (CNN, aviNews, FDA). The question will be suspended on 20 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, scroll down to the table under the map graphic (note that the webpage has a main scroll bar, then a second scroll bar to the left of the main one as soon as the map and table are visible). Click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" button to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table, and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data (csv file). Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 18 December 2024 and 20 June 2025 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 July 2025. As of the launch of this question, the total number of birds affected between 18 December 2023 and 20 June 2024 was 21,698,725.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 6 million | 5.00% | -2.14% |
| At least 6 million, but fewer than 9 million | 35.00% | +27.86% |
| At least 9 million, but fewer than 12 million | 35.00% | +27.86% |
| At least 12 million, but fewer than 15 million | 20.00% | +12.86% |
| At least 15 million, but fewer than 18 million | 5.00% | -2.14% |
| At least 18 million, but fewer than 21 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 21 million, but fewer than 25 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 25 million, but fewer than 30 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 30 million, but fewer than 36 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 36 million, but fewer than 43 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 43 million, but fewer than 51 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 51 million, but fewer than 60 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| At least 60 million, but fewer than 70 million | 0% | -7.14% |
| 70 million or more | 0% | -7.14% |