What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 in its March 2025 projection materials?
Closed Mar 19, 2025 07:01AM (16 days ago)
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 18 December 2024, the median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 (specifically, "value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year") was 3.9%, up from the 3.4% projection released in September 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials December 2024, see "Table 1," MSN [Wall Street Journal]). The question will be suspended on 18 March 2025 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 18-19 March 2025 (Federal Reserve).
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The question closed "3.9%" with a closing date of 19 March 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.5% | 5% | |
| At least 3.6%, but less than 3.9% | 24% | |
| 3.9% | 40% | |
| Higher than 3.9%, but at most 4.2% | 29% | |
| Higher than 4.2% | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 22 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 105 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 410 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
