Before 8 May 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM
Closed Mar 19, 2025 06:00PM (16 days ago)

As the Federal Reserve contemplates future interest rate cuts in 2025, the central bank has continued to reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening," which it slowed beginning in June 2024 (US News & World Report, Investopedia, Congressional Research Service). The question will be suspended on 6 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $60 billion each month, $25 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 18 December 2024). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $60 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, it will decrease the total cap" with a closing date of 19 March 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, it will increase the total cap 4%
Yes, it will decrease the total cap 35%
No 62%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 12
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 30
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 409
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.289994
2.
-0.240444
3.
-0.225725
4.
-0.196062
5.
-0.126961

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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