What will be the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) most recently announced "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" as of 24 January 2025?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 24, 2025 08:01AM UTC

In 2024, the BOJ ended its 17-year policy of negative interest rates and began normalizing its monetary policy (CNBC, Yahoo [Bloomberg], CNBC). As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 23-24 January 2025, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.25 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy December 2024, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the upper limit of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.1%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in most 2024 statements, the BOJ has explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "0.50% or more" with a closing date of 24 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.25% 3%
0.25% 41%
More than 0.25%, but less than 0.50% 20%
0.50% or more 36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 12
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 130
Number of Forecasts 49
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 298
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.398054
2.
-0.389296
3.
-0.26253
4.
-0.059321
5.
-0.032268

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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