Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will US federal government spending total less than $6.25 trillion in FY2027 (1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027)?

Started Dec 24, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2027 07:01AM UTC

Major federal spending cuts were promised by the Trump campaign in 2024, but obstacles remain despite Republican control of Congress (The Hill, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2027 if still open and the outcome determined using the Monthly Treasury Statement first covering through 30 September 2025 as published by the Department of the Treasury (Department of the Treasury - Monthly Treasury Statements). The question will close early if a Monthly Treasury Statement indicates that the $6.25 trillion threshold has been passed for FY2027 before September 2027. For FY2024, US federal government spending was reported as $6,751,552 million, or $6.751552 trillion (Department of the Treasury - September 2024 Monthly Treasury Statement, see "Outlays" in Table 1 on page 5).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 3.30% -1.95%
No 96.70% +1.95%

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