Enrique Tarrio, former leader of the "Proud Boys" who was convicted on criminal charges including seditious conspiracy for his actions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, is currently serving a decades-long prison sentence (Politico, NBC News, Department of Justice). Donald Trump has discussed pardoning at least some defendants convicted on Capitol riot-related charges, but who all may be included in grants of clemency and the scope of that clemency remains to be seen (CNN, The Hill). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count. Whether Tarrio refuses to accept any clemency is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.