Will Jacob Chansley (aka the "QAnon Shaman") receive a presidential pardon or other clemency for convictions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots before 1 March 2025?

Started Dec 27, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

Jacob Chansley, popularly known as the "QAnon Shaman" for his actions at the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, has served his prison sentence but remains under supervised release as of December 2024 (NPR, CNN, Department of Justice). Donald Trump has discussed pardoning at least some defendants convicted on Capitol riot-related charges, but who all may be included in grants of clemency and the scope of that clemency remains to be seen (CNN, The Hill, NBC Miami). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count. Whether Chansley refuses to accept any clemency is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots 38.00% -7.00%
Yes, but some form of clemency less than a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots 28.25% -6.25%
No 33.75% +13.25%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username