salinas asks:
What will be the monthly average US trade deficit in the first quarter of 2026?
Closing Apr 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
A country's balance of trade is calculated by subtracting the value of imports from the value of exports, and the US trade deficit has been a point of concern for decades (Investopedia - Trade Deficit, Washington International Trade Association, Council on Foreign Relations). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2026 and the outcome determined using Census Bureau trade balance data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in early May 2026 (FRED, note that a negative value indicates a deficit, while a positive value would indicate a surplus). As of the launch of this question, the monthly average US trade deficit in the first quarter of 2024 was $67,747 million, or $67.747 billion (January 2024: -$66,399 million; February 2024: -$68,870 million; March 2024: -$67,972 million). The US has not had a trade surplus in the 21st Century.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $36.0 billion, or a trade surplus | 0.50% | 0% |
| At least $36.0 billion, but less than $48.0 billion | 1.10% | -0.30% |
| At least $48.0 billion, but less than $60.0 billion | 17.90% | -9.10% |
| At least $60.0 billion, but less than $72.0 billion | 56.70% | +4.70% |
| At least $72.0 billion, but less than $84.0 billion | 15.00% | +5.40% |
| At least $84.0 billion, but less than $96.0 billion | 5.10% | -0.70% |
| At least $96.0 billion, but less than $108.0 billion | 2.40% | 0% |
| $108.0 billion or more | 1.30% | 0% |