The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third (BEA - Release Schedule). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using the advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), expected in January 2026, and the third estimates for all other quarters, typically released in the subsequent quarter. The third estimate for Q3 2024 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent for the quarter (BEA - Third Estimate Q3 2024). As of the launch of this question, the last time the quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2022 (Trading Economics).

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