Who will the Liberal Party of Canada elect as its new leader?

Started Jan 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 07, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 6 January 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is also the leader of the Liberal Party, announced that he intends to "resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its new leader," with the Canadian parliament to be prorogued (i.e., suspended) until 24 March 2025 (CNN, BBC). The date the newly elected leader will fill the position is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Anita Anand 3.00% 0%
Mark Carney 50.00% -7.00%
George Chahal 1.00% 0%
François-Philippe Champagne 3.00% +2.00%
Christy Clark 5.00% +3.00%
Chrystia Freeland 19.00% +5.00%
Mélanie Joly 6.00% +1.00%
Dominic LeBlanc 4.00% 0%
Someone else 4.00% -1.00%
No new leader will be elected before 7 April 2025 5.00% -3.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username