In Louisiana v. Callais and/or Robinson v. Callais, will the Supreme Court rule that Louisiana's congressional district map creating two majority-Black congressional districts (aka "S.B. 8 map") is illegal and/or unconstitutional?

Started Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

After various rounds of judicial and legislative proceedings, the Louisiana state legislature adopted Senate Bill 8 (S.B. 8), which created two congressional districts where Black residents were a majority of the population (NBC News, NPR, Louisiana State Legislature - S.B. 8). A group of Louisiana voters, including Phillip Callais, sued the state, asserting that race had unconstitutionally predominated in the drawing of one of the congressional districts (AP, Callais v. Landry - Complaint 31 January 2024). The district court agreed with the voters, ruling that S.B 8 violates the Equal Protection Clause of the US Constitution and thus prohibiting Louisiana from using that map in the future, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (Callais v. Landry - Injunction 30 April 2024, SCOTUSblog - Louisiana v. Callais, NBC News). The Supreme Court consolidated Louisiana v. Callais and Robinson v. Callais for consideration, the latter being different litigation over the same issue. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides these cases without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 41.30% -3.70%
No 58.70% +3.70%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username